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Mercosur-EU trade agreement: Better Late than Never...

Otaviano Canuto | Posted : July 03, 2019

 

Twenty years after negotiations began between Mercosur and the European Union (EU), a trade agreement between ministers was reached last Friday in Brussels. Its first phase, from 1999 to 2014, had among the motivations on the European side not to be left behind while the US then pursued a Free Trade Agreement for Latin America (FTAA). Symptomatically, such enthusiasm cooled after FTAA negotiations came to a halt and the United States embarked on bilateral agreements with some countries in the region. This time, the US bilateralism of the Trump era has been answered by the EU with the search for agreements with Canada, Japan, Mexico and Mercosur. On the Mercosur side, in the recent period, there has been an unprecedented alignment favorable to the conclusion of an agreement.

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From ‘Rule of Law’ to ‘Law of the Jungle’: Global Trade seen through Twitter

Otaviano Canuto | Posted : June 10, 2019

This article was originally published on Center for Macroeconomics and development's website

Friday night, US President Donald Trump announced by Twitter that he would suspend the implementation of tariffs on Mexican imports, which would start with 5% on Monday, June 10, to reach 25% in October. A signed agreement between the two countries, also confirmed by Twitter by Mexico’s foreign minister Marcelo Ebrard, would have included Mexican government’s commitments to take “strong measures” to “reduce – or eliminate – illegal immigration to the United States,” in Trump’s words.

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Poverty reduction in Brazil… partially gone with the cycle

Otaviano Canuto | Posted : May 21, 2019

Throughout my last 15 years working in multilateral institutions, many times around the world I was asked to speak about the success of poverty reduction in Brazil during the new millennium. Last week, someone who was on such an occasion in October 2013 in Nairobi asked me what my numbers had become after these recent years of precarious macroeconomic performance and high unemployment in the country. I replied that they have changed ... in part!

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How Chinese Investment in Latin America Is Changing

Otaviano Canuto | Posted : March 14, 2019

China's push for Latin American consumers reflects changes back home.

Chinese financing in Latin America is changing. After becoming a major source of capital flows to Latin America and the Caribbean over the past 15 years, a more diverse range of investors has surfaced, interested in channeling resources towards infrastructure, governments and state companies.

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Why Brazil Must Build a (Fiscal) Wall

Otaviano Canuto | Posted : January 31, 2019

Without reforms, financial markets’ optimism may crumble – and bring the house down.

Judging by the reaction of financial markets, the Brazilian economy started the year at high speed. The real is among the world’s best-performing currencies so far in 2019 and the main stock market index Ibovespa hit a string of record highs leading into last week, when it broke the 97,000-point mark. Future interest rates have fallen sharply. 

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World Bank: A Hummingbird on the Firing Line

Otaviano Canuto | Posted : January 14, 2019

Last week Jim Yong Kim, president of the World Bank, unexpectedly announced his resignation, effective as soon as next month and three and a half years prior to the end of his second mandate. Given the current environment of challenged and weakened multilateralism, the aftermath of his succession has a relevance that transcends the limits of that institution.

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The US-China trade truce: a time-out or a possible armistice?

Otaviano Canuto | Posted : December 06, 2018

The trade truce between the United States and China, announced after the dinner of the presidents of the two countries in Buenos Aires on Saturday after the G20 meeting, must be assessed in accordance to three different motivations that can be attributed to President Trump as reasons for starting the war. Although special attention has been given to immediate implications of the truce for the global macroeconomic environment and its impact on financial markets, it is important to keep in sight what it will take to become either a short time-out or a step to armistice.

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Benefits and Costs of Islamic Finance

Otaviano Canuto | Posted : November 05, 2018

Islamic finance is a way of doing finance while respecting the Islamic ban on interest-based transactions and ensuring risk sharing between parties in all operations. Contracts are supposed to rule out features that would make them akin to gambling or “making money from money.” Furthermore, engagements in businesses considered immoral or ethically problematic are not allowed.

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