This article was originally published on Bruegel
A recovery from the COVID-19 recession is underway though the suffering is far from over, especially for the most vulnerable. Inequality is both a consequence of the pandemic and a cause of its severity. Many countries need comprehensive policy change to address its worst effects.
According to this month’s OECD economic outlook, global GDP --- which took a huge hit from the pandemic and is still 3% below its level of a year ago – will not recover its pre-pandemic level until the end of 2021. In a downside scenario, the return could take almost a year longer. The OECD predictions, which imply high and protracted unemployment, are in line with the view of many other official and private organizations. The arrival of effective vaccines such as Pfizer-BioNTech was widely expected and is already reflected – at least to some degree – in these assessments. Given the massive demand for vaccines around the world, regulatory barriers, logistics difficulties, and the impossibility of ramping up production quickly, the caution is understandable.
This article was originally published on Bruegel.
The global economy is showing signs of recovery from the economic crisis caused by COVID-19, though the spread of the coronavirus is accelerating in some countries. In this circumstance, policymakers must weigh up the trade-offs involved in dealing with the pandemic while easing lock downs and sustaining economic activity. Differences in age structures, urbanisation rates and other factors will inform decision making in different countries.
The United States has suffered more COVID-19 casualties than any other country and continues to report large numbers of new cases and deaths, and – as evident recently in stock markets – investors remain extremely sensitive to the epidemic’s shifting trends. As every state reopens, including most recently the New York epicenter, the fates of the American economy and of the global economy depend on whether the United States has put the worst of the epidemic behind it, or whether it will be forced to reclose in the face of a resurgence of infections. We assess the risks by drawing on the record of countries that appear to be reopening successfully so far.
Alors que commence le déconfinement de l'économie française, la grande inquiétude est de savoir comment éviter une « seconde vague » de l'épidémie. Parmi les nombreuses précautions et mesures à prendre, l’augmentation du nombre de tests et le traçage systématique des contacts sont les plus souvent mis en avant par les épidémiologistes. L'idéal serait de tester fréquemment tous les habitants du pays et ses visiteurs étrangers. Pour cela, il faudrait effectuer bien au-delà de 60 millions de tests Covid-19 chaque semaine ou deux. La France a toutefois effectué moins de 1,5 million de tests de dépistage depuis le début de l'épidémie, et l'objectif - jugé ambitieux - est d'arriver à 500.000 tests par semaine d'ici le 11 mai.
Confronted with surging unemployment and miles long lines at food banks across the United States, most states have begun reopening the economy. Many of these states are seeing rising numbers of new cases and face a real risk of relapsing into an uncontrolled pandemic. To avoid this outcome, they must adopt a strategy that entails testing, tracing, and isolation of the infected, with priority given to groups and places where the medical impact – reducing infections and saving lives – is highest. Several new studies, mainly originating in Europe where the epidemic has claimed the largest number of victims, provide invaluable data on how to set priorities.
Le nouveau coronavirus est apparu en Chine et, jusqu’à début mars, s'est propagé dans plus de 90 pays. Le virus a fait son apparition au Maroc avec seulement deux cas importés connus, mais sans tests généralisés. Il est impossible de déterminer l'ampleur de sa propagation.
On ne sait pas grand-chose sur le virus. Mais, ce que l'on sait déjà est extrêmement important pour les décideurs politiques qui tentent d'élaborer une réponse appropriée.
The growth slowdown became evident in late 2017. World GDP at market exchange rates slowed from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of between 4 and 5% in the second half of 2017 to between 1.5% to 2% in the first half of 2019. The slowdown came as a big surprise and led to continuous revisions downwards of growth forecasts as shown yet again by the IMF’s World Economic Outlook issued last week.
