Events

Module 1 : Macroeconomic Policy (30 H) 

Par Pierre-Richard Agénor

L’objectif général du cours est d’aider à une meilleure compréhension des enjeux macroéconomiques, tels que décrits ci-dessus, qui se posent à la RDC et à guider le choix des politiques économiques en se basant à la fois sur des outils analytiques et quantitatifs rigoureux et sur les expériences internationales. Plus précisément, le cours a trois objectifs :

1- Permettre aux participants de se familiariser avec les éléments analytiques et méthodologiques nécessaires pour la compréhension des mécanismes de transmission des politiques macroéconomiques dans une économie en développement fortement dépendante des ressources naturelles.

2- Permettre aux participants de se familiariser avec certains types de modèles macroéconomiques appliqués nécessaires pour l’analyse opérationnelle des politiques macroéconomiques.

3- Permettre aux participants de s’informer sur les expériences internationales susceptibles d’éclairer les choix de politiques macroéconomiques dans une économie comme celle du Maroc et les méthodologies modernes d’analyse de ces choix, notamment en matière de modélisation structurelle.

Le cours se focalisera sur les thématiques suivantes :

The structure of the course will be as follows:

1 - Les comptes nationaux en économie ouverte : Principes et applications macroéconomiques

2 -  Les fonctions de comportement : Consommation, épargne, et investissement

3 -  La contrainte budgétaire de l’Etat et la soutenabilité de la dette publique

4 -  Le mécanisme de transmission de la politique monétaire : Vue d’ensemble

5 -  Analyse du mécanisme de transmission de la politique monétaire

6 -  Stabilité financière, politique macro-prudentielle, et politique monétaire

7 -  Mouvements de capitaux et intégration financière internationale

8 -  Régimes de change et ciblage d’inflation

9 -  Les modèles macroéconomiques appliqués : VAR et VARX

10 -  Les modèles macroéconomiques appliqués : DGSE

Module 2 : The Economics of Natural Resources (30 H)

Par Rabah Arezki

The global economy is experiencing significant changes, with major implications for the demand for natural resources. It is expected that emerging economies will increasingly drive global economic growth. Many countries are trying to adapt to climate change and supply shocks and there will be a progressive technological improvement in extractive industries. All these changes will affect in a significant way, both supply and demand for natural resources.

A major challenge for commodity exporters and importers is how to manage the impact of volatile commodity prices on macroeconomic and financial stability and finally how to escape the natural resources curse.

The course will cover policy relevant issues in the management of natural resources ranging from fiscal terms for the extraction sector to sovereign wealth management. The course will borrow from a large body of academic work and case studies.  

The structure of the course will be as follows:

           1 -  Commodity markets

           2 -  Fiscal terms for natural resource extraction sector

           3 -  Macroeconomic policy and natural resources

           4 -  Growth policies and natural resources

           5 -  Sovereign wealth management in resource rich countries

Module 3 : Applied Econometrics (30 H)

Par Paulo Picchetti

While macroeconomic theory has been experiencing methodological innovations among controversies during the last thirty years, time-series econometrics has become an essential tool for the practicing macroeconomist, whose main concerns are forecasting, and measuring the impact of policies. Statistical methods largely replaced purely theoretical constructs in the fundamental tasks of specification and estimation of econometric models. Accordingly, building a robust foundation on statistical principles is nowadays indispensable for the macroeconomic analysts who need to both produce meaningful forecasts and analysis of their own, and evaluate the results produced by third parties.

This course aims to build the statistical foundations behind the general class of time-series models currently utilized by Central Banks, Research Institutes and Private Consultants, and present the main approaches available. Applied econometrics is best understood when actually practiced, so the course will combine theoretical presentations with hands-on exercises using dedicated software to analyze both real and simulated data.

The main issues covered by the course are:

1. General principles of statistical inference (with emphasis on Maximum Likelihood and General Method of Moments Estimation and Testing).

- Desired properties of estimators

- Hypothesis testing

- Software implementations.

1. Dynamic Linear Regression Models

- Temporal relationships among economic variables

- Specification and performance testing of dynamic models.

2. Vector Auto-Regressions and Error-Correction Models

- The roles of Theory vs Data in the specification of multivariate dynamic relationships

- Identification issues

- Impulse-response functions and the analysis of policy impacts.

3. Testing for Stationarity in series and stability in parameters of dynamic models

- Deterministic and stochastic trends in economic series

- Dealing with outliers and structural changes in economic series.

4. Unobserved Components models.

- Structural models

- Dynamic factor models

- The reconciliation of theory and macro-econometrics: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models.

Module 4 : Understanding Labor Market (30 H)

Par Prakash Loungani

The course provides a cross-country look at the functioning of labor markets. The goal is to provide basic tools and knowledge needed to assess how labor markets in Morocco and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region function relative to a peer group of countries.

Specifically, the course will offer detailed lectures on the following three topics:

- Unemployment: Natural and Cyclical—what is the natural rate of unemployment? How strong are links between unemployment and output in the short run?

- Migration—what is the role of migration as a mechanism for labor market adjustment? what are the welfare implications of migration?

- Labor market institutions and labor market outcomes—how does the design of labor market institutions affect unemployment and job creation?

The main points that would be covered by the course are:

           1 -  The Natural Rate of Unemployment

           2 -  The Short-Run Link between Jobs and Growth

           3 -  Estimating Jobs-Growth Link for Morocco

           4 -  The design of labor market institutions for developing countries

           5 -  The minimum wage

           6 -  Employment Protection Legislation

           7 -  Unemployment Benefits

           8 -  Active Labor Market Policies

Module 5: Fiscal Management (30 H)

Par Hinh T. Dinh

The objective of this module is to provide participants with up-to-date knowledge of the theory and practice of fiscal management as applied to a middle income country like Morocco.  At the end of the course, participants should be able to understand not only detailed components of revenue and expenditure, but also how fiscal policy is linked to the rest of the economy and the rest of the world.  More importantly, they will understand the practical issues involved in the design and implementation of fiscal adjustments, information not normally available in an academic setting.

It is expected that participants of this course have a basic understanding of macroeconomic and microeconomic courses at a university.  The required reading material will be distributed in advance of the module.  The discussion will then focus on a real life case study.  I will ask a set of questions on the case study for the participants to discuss.  The participants will be the main driver for the discussion and I will be the facilitator.  A summary of the issues discussed and an overview of the next session will conclude.    

The main topics covered are:

           1  -  Fiscal policy and the consistent macroeconomic framework

           2  -  Objectives of fiscal policy

           3 -  Different definitions of budget deficits

           4  -  Automatic stabilizers

           5  -  Transparency and accountability

           6  -  Fiscal policy rules, indicators, and policy coordination

           7  -  Tax Revenue projection

           8  -  Non Tax revenue

           9  -  Expenditure management by component

           10 -  Fiscal solvency and sustainability

           11 -  Qualitative aspects of fiscal solvency and sustainability analysis

           12 -  Fiscal, quasi-fiscal and other macroeconomic policies

           13 -  Budget preparation

           14 -  Budget execution and control

           15 -  Accounting, reporting, and audit          

Module 7 :Growth Economics (30 H)

Par Pièrre-Richard Agénor

L’objectif général du cours est d’aider à une meilleure compréhension des enjeux de la croissance économique qui se posent au Maroc et à guider le choix des politiques économiques en se basant à la fois sur les enseignements de l’analyse économique, d’études quantitatives rigoureuses, et des expériences internationales, aussi bien des pays développés que des pays en développement à moyen revenu. Plus précisément, le cours a trois objectifs :

1 -  Permettre aux participants de se familiariser avec les éléments analytiques et méthodologiques nécessaires pour la compréhension des facteurs affectant la croissance et l’emploi dans un pays à moyen revenu, dans le contexte d’une économie mondiale en mutation

2 -  Permettre aux participants de se familiariser avec certains types de modèles appliqués, nécessaires pour l’analyse d’impact des politiques économiques visant à promouvoir la croissance et l’emploi et susceptibles d’orienter les choix entre ces politiques.

3 -  Permettre aux participants de s’informer sur les expériences internationales susceptibles d’éclairer les choix de politiques de croissance dans une économie comme celle du Maroc.

Le cours se déroulera sur une période de cinq jours et consistera en dix sessions :

1 - L’épargne, l’investissement et la croissance

2 - Le capital humain comme élément moteur de la croissance

3 - Le capital public et la croissance économique

4 - L’allocation des dépenses publiques et la croissance

5 - Interactions entre la croissance, la répartition, et la pauvreté

6 - Innovation et croissance

7 - Imitation, Innovation, et croissance : les pièges de croissance modérée

8 - Croissance, emploi et chômage

9 - Développement financier et croissance

10 - Egalité des genres et croissance

Module 8 : Regional Economics (30 H)

Par Eduardo Amaral Haddad

This course will introduce participants to some of the commonly-used tool kits in regional economics that help understanding and interpreting the complexity of the spatial structure of sub-national economies. Emphasis in the course will be given to the analysis of integrated inter-regional systems. Various available techniques have selected, ranging from spatial data analysis and classical Leontief input-output analysis to inter-regional computable general equilibrium modeling, which constitutes nowadays one of the main research frontiers in regional modeling. In addition to presenting the bases of the selected methods, applications for different countries (Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco and Portugal) will be discussed related to topics of interest for regional policy makers, including regional economic development, domestic and international trade, transportation infrastructure, exploitation of natural resources, climate change, government transfers, tourism and regional interdependence

The structure of the course will be as follows:

1 -  Spatial Data Analysis:

   - Measures of Concentration, Specialization, and Localization

   - Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) – Global and local Spatial Autocorrelation

2 -  Economic Impact Analysis: Input-Output and CGE Models with a regional perspective

3 -  Trade and Networks

4 - Mobility, Accessibility and Productivity in Inter-regional Systems