Global Economic Outlook
Par Uri Dadush, Senior Associate in the International Economics Program, Carnegie and Senior Fellow OCP Policy Center
Though economic forecasts over the last couple of years have been driven by hopeful sentiments, the actual numbers have proven to be disappointing, as they fall short of expectations. The aftereffects of the Lehman crisis, now over six years old, and of the sovereign crisis in Europe, have been systematically underestimated and continue to represent a pandemic in terms of economic growth. The focus on averages has also proven to be misleading, as disparities in growth have, and continue to, characterize the economic reality, leaving little to no room for wishful thinking. Though the negative repercussions persist, some significant areas of strength and economic healing have surfaced, such as the collapse of the oil prices that is mainly a result of the surging supply, as opposed to a falling demand. Within this understanding, the forecast for 2015 is moderate growth at best, much similarly to 2014, which sat in the lower end of the economic growth spectrum.
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Uri B. Dadush
Uri Dadush is a senior associate in Carnegie’s International Economics Program. He focuses on trends in the global economy and is currently also tracking developments in the eurozone crisis. Dadush is interested in the impact of the rise of developing countries for financial flows, trade and migration, and the associated economic policy and governance questions. He is the co-author of four recent books and reports: Inequality in America: Facts, Trends and International Perspective (Brookings, 2012), Juggernaut: How Emerging Markets Are Reshaping Globalization (Carnegie, 2011), Currency Wars (Carnegie, 2011), and Paradigm Lost: The Euro in Crisis (Carnegie, 2010). He has published over a dozen Carnegie papers and policy briefs as well as numerous journal articles.
Before joining Carnegie, Mr. Dadush’s experience was split evenly between the public and private sector, where he led a number of business-turnaround situations. In the private sector, he was president and CEO of the Economist Intelligence Unit and Business International, part of the Economist Group (1986–1992); group vice president, international, for Data Resources, Inc. (1982–1986), now Global Insight; and a consultant with McKinsey and Company in Europe. In the public sector, he served as the World Bank’s director of international trade and director of economic policy. He also served concurrently as the director of the bank’s world economy group, leading the preparation of the World Bank’s flagship reports on the international economy for over eleven years.