Conference on Quantitative Tools to Understand and Forecast Commodity Markets
OCP Policy Center, Rabat
Commodity prices fluctuations continue to affect global economic activity and income distribution both in net exporter and net importer countries. For many economies, especially developing countries, commodities remain an important source of export earnings, and commodity price volatility has a major impact on overall macroeconomic performance. This phenomenon implies actually new challenges for practitioners and policy makers trying to move toward a better understanding of the functioning of those markets.
This led to a wide development and application of models of commodity markets and industries. These models have been built up for a variety of purposes such as forecasting and policy analysis and have employed a variety of methodologies (from structural to non-structural approaches). In addition, the fact that the structure of the commodity markets is generally oligopolistic requires the use of industrial and microeconomic modelling tools (such as game theory) that are able to deal with strategic choices of the market players.
OCP Policy Center (OCPPC) in partnership with the Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences (FSJES Souissi) of Mohammed V University in Rabat (UM5R) and the African Institute of Risk-Management organize an international conference on “Quantitative tools to Understand and Forecast Commodity Markets”. The conference will focus on recent trends in the research fields of modelling and forecasting methods applied to commodity markets with speakers from both industrial sector and academia.
Related Call for Papers : Quantitative Tools to Understand and Forecast Commodity Markets
More information
For more information about the conference, please send your questions to the following email addresses: yassine.msadfa@ocppc.ma or saidiyoussef@hotmail.com
Agenda
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Wednesday, September 28, 2016 |
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| 09h00 – 09h30 |
Welcome and opening Remarks - Karim El Aynaoui (OCP Policy Center) - Saaid Amzazi (Mohammed V University in Rabat) - Azzedine Ghoufrane (Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences-Souissi) - Adil Reghai (Institut Africain de Risk-Management) |
| 09h30 – 11h45 |
Policy Panel: Understanding the functioning of Commodities markets: New challenges for practitioners and policy makers Chair: John Baffes, World Bank, United States Speakers: - Abdellah MOUTTAQI, Office National des Hydrocarbures et des Mines Maroc, - Adil Reghaï, Banque Natixis and Institut Africain de Risque Management, France - Franck Sebban, I-Fihn Consulting and Institut Africain de Risque Management, France General discussion |
| 11h45 – 12h00 |
Coffee Break |
| 12h00 – 12h45 |
Session 1:The transmission of world commodity prices to domestic markets Chair: Rachid Doukkali, OCP Policy Center, Morocco "The Cross-Border Transmission of Price Shocks Evidence from Tanzanian Food Markets" Speaker: John Baffes, World Bank, United States Co-authors: Varun Kshirsagarz, Kimetrica International Limited, United States Donald Mitchell, DPR International, United States General discussion |
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14h30 – 15h00
15h00 – 15h30 |
Session 2: Quantitative modelling of commodity markets: determinants of prices, supply and demand Chair: Ahmed El Ghini, Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences-Souissi, Rabat, Morocco "Un modèle de prévision du prix de l’électricité et du pétrole brut basé sur l’analyse multirésolution adaptative et réseaux baysiens " Speaker: Salim Lahmiri, ESCA École de Management, Casablanca, Morocco "Oil supply and demand shocks and stock price: Evidence for some OECD countries" Speaker: Youssef Saidi, Research Department, Bank Al-Maghrib, Rabat, Morocco Co-author: Abderrazak Dhaoui, University of Sousse, Tunisia and University of Reims Champagne Ardenne, France |
| 15h30 – 15h45 |
General discussion |
| 15h45 – 16h00 |
Coffee Break |
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16h00 – 16h30
16h30 – 17h00 |
Session 3: Microeconomic and operational research models of commodity market strategies and market structure Chair: Abderrahim Oulidi, Université International de Rabat and Institut Africain de Risque Management, Morocco "Dynamique du prix des matières premières et optimalité des relations contractuelles au sein des filières : une approche théorique" Speaker: Clément Nouail, Université de Bordeaux, France Co-author: Yves Jégourel, Université de Bordeaux, France and OCP Policy Center, Rabat, Morocco "The transmission of global oil and fertilizer prices to the local food price: A Morocco case study" Speaker: Mounir EL Karimi, Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences-Souissi, Rabat, Morocco Co-author: Ahmed El Ghini, Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences-Souissi, Rabat, Morocco |
| 17h00 – 17h15 |
General discussion |
| 17h15 – 17h30 |
Closing remarks |
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